NHL Predictions: Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche

As the end of the season quickly approaches, teams continue jockeying in the standings. Some teams have nothing to play for other than the role of the spoiler, by defeating a bubble team and squashing their dreams of the postseason. Others locked up their playoff berths days or weeks ago, but still push for higher seeding or home-ice advantage. Tonight features a particularly interesting game between the Winnipeg Jets and Colorado Avalanche, who appear destined for a first round matchup against one another.

NHL Predictions: Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche

After the Dallas Stars defeated Colorado last weekend, the Avs fell five points behind Dallas for first place in the Central Division. Meanwhile, the Jets sit in a tie with Colorado, as both teams boast identical 49-24-6 records and 104 points as of 4/12. With only three games remaining, a Jets vs Avalanche matchup appears inevitable. Winnipeg currently owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with home-ice advantage still up-for-grabs.

So, Saturday evening gives both teams a chance to size one another up before meeting again in about ten days. Things look very up-in-the-air here, as each team had shaky stretches recently. Winnipeg went winless in seven-straight games to end March, while Colorado dropped five out of their last eight. That said, the Jets enter play Saturday on a five-game winning streak, so they have the edge in recent performance.

Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche

Head-to-Head: Jets 2-0 Avalanche

This marks the third and final matchup between these teams for the 2023-24 regular season. That said, another four to seven games will come in the next few weeks. In the first two Jets vs Avalanche games, Winnipeg defeated Colorado by scores of 4-2 and 6-2. Those both came in December, well before the trade deadline. Since they last faced one another, the teams made a whopping ten trades combined, affecting both lineups significantly.

Avalanche Analysis Down-the-Stretch

In Denver, six trades took place in early March. Aside from prospect and picks moved, the Avs added Sean Walker, Casey Mittelstadt, Brandon Duhaime, and Yakov Trenin. They subtracted Kurtis MacDermid, Ryan Johansen, Bowen Byram, and Ben Meyers. That’s a long list of NHL players who entered and exited in a short span, but the team managed well through that turmoil. In fact, they went on a tear, winning nine in a row from March 4th through the 24th.

Colorado’s offence has been there all year, with Nathan MacKinnon in the mix for the Hart and Art Ross Trophies, and Mikko Rantanen eclipsing 100 points again just behind him. Jonathan Drouin really found his stride in the back-half of the season, enough to reach the highest point total of his career (56). Valeri Nichushkin scored at a point-per-game pace this year too, though he unfortunately missed roughly a third of the season.

That said, to have success in a Jets vs Avalanche series, Colorado needs to prevent goals better. The recent emergence of Justus Annunen as a capable NHL goaltender helps in goal. Though Alexandar Georgiev leads the league in wins, his negative goals saved above average and sub-.500 quality start percentage suggest the team in front of him is more responsible for the victories than he. While Colorado’s superstar talent and extraordinary depth make them impossible to overlook, but teams certainly prefer entering the playoffs with momentum than without it.

Jets Analysis Down-the-Stretch

Speaking of goalies, Connor Hellebuyck emerged as the odds-on favourite to win the Vezina Trophy as the league’s top netminder. He sits just behind Georgiev in wins, but miles ahead of him in other categories, with nearly 30 goals saved above average and the highest save percentage of starting goalies league-wide. While Colorado sits atop the league in goals scored, Winnipeg sits atop the league in goals allowed. Literally, the Jets vs Avalanche represent a, “league’s best offence vs league’s best defence and goalie” storyline.

This year stands as only the second time in Winnipeg’s franchise history where they eclipsed the 100-point marker. They made four moves at the deadline, adding Colin Miller, Tyler Toffoli and Sean Monahan, while only losing picks and prospects. Monahan and Toffoli slipped into the lineup seamlessly, adding more firepower on a deep squad. While they lack a bonafide superstar, they have multiple players in the next tier; Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Kyle Connor all remain long-time focal pieces in their lineup and continue to contribute the most offensively.

Where this team truly excels is in their discipline. The lineup doesn’t look drastically different from recent years where they struggled just to squeak into the playoffs, but Rick Bowness has them buying in to the game plan. With that system structure, and Hellebuyck standing pat behind it, scoring on this team takes a lot of work, persistence, and patience.

Extrapolating to the Postseason

Winning tonight might make all the difference in a variety of ways. It could be enough to give the victor home-ice advantage in the Jets vs Avalanche first round series. It could be enough to spark a resurgence for either of these teams too, as they both stand on shaky ground as of late. Heck, it could even be enough to generate momentum for a deep playoff run.

Everyone loves a good storyline, but must remember that motivation comes from both positive and negative experiences. All the above ideas could be flipped entirely on their head and wind up triggering opposite results. Maybe the team who wins this game gets a bit complacent, and takes their opponent for granted come the postseason. Perhaps the loser tonight becomes the winner in the long-run; after all, losing motivates vengeance.

However the chips fall, one thing is for certain: these teams will know more about one another after tonight than they did before. These two juggernauts in the West play the game very differently, and it makes for one of the most intriguing playoff matchups this season. A deadly offence against a stout defence and elite goaltender, surely tonight’s game should be a nice taste of the battle to come.

Prediction: Avs win 3-1