Bears and Patriots learning from 2021 QB draft pick mistakes

The experts often say it takes three to four years to evaluate a draft class properly. On this one measure, the 2021 QB class has overachieved and completed its evaluation early: a complete disaster.

Five quarterbacks were drafted with the first fifteen picks, headlined by a generational prospect in Trevor Lawrence at No. 1, followed by Zach Wilson and Trey Lance at two and three. This made it just the third NFL draft to start with three straight quarterback selections.

With Justin Fields' recent move to the Steelers, Mac Jones' trade to Jacksonville, and Zach Wilson seemingly gone from the Jets, only one of the five first-round quarterbacks looks poised to start the 2024 season with the team that drafted them — or start in the 2024 season, period.

The unpredictability of first-round quarterbacks is a documented fact, yet one that has done nothing to deter teams' enthusiasm for drafting them. Another three quarterbacks were drafted in the top four picks last year, with a record twelve in the first five rounds overall.

What went wrong with the 2021 QB class, and what lessons can teams learn to avoid making the same mistakes in 2024?

The Athletic recently took an individual look at each of the five quarterbacks and then identified three common issues that led to such a failed class of QBs:

“Poor talent projection, overvalued prospects and a failure to provide the quarterbacks with adequate coaching or roster support.”

While poor evaluation and over-drafting prospects are not going away, the draft will always be an uncertain business built on projection. However, providing adequate coaching and roster support is within the immediate reach of all teams. 

The Bears and Patriots, two teams that drafted a failed 2021 quarterback and look primed to draft one again in 2024, appear to have learned from their mistakes.

In his three years, Fields played in two offensive systems under two head coaches with two different offense coordinators. He had a different leading receiver each season.  

Jones faced similar challenges. While he played all three seasons under head coach Bill Belichick, he had a different offensive coordinator each season, including his second year, when he had a previously unheard-of OC by committee.  

Having jettisoned their 2021 first-rounders, the Bears and the Pats have spent this offseason stocking the cupboard with offensive skill position assets and restructuring or overhauling their coaching staff with an eye towards talent-rich ballhandlers with a stable coaching staff.

The Bears kept HC Matt Eberflus but otherwise cleaned house on their offensive coaches. The Patriots went further, parting ways with Belichick and handing the reigns to coach-in-waiting Jerod Mayo.

The Bears added a 2023 1,000-yard rusher in D'Andre Swift and a 1,000-yard receiver in Keenan Allen. They also added a solid TE2 in Gerald Everett. Adding those three players to D.J. Moore will give whoever the Bears draft at quarterback the best group of position players since 2013, when Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey had 1,421 and 1,295 receiving yards, respectively, and Matt Forte ran for 1,339 yards.  

The Patriots did similar work to ensure a deep and experienced skill position group is waiting for whoever they draft at quarterback. They signed WR K.J. Osborn, RB Antonio Gibson, and TE Austin Hooper, in addition to re-signing/extending TE Hunter Henry and WRs Kendrick Bourne and Jalen Reagor.

In the ever-unpredictable world of NFL prospect projections, controlling the one variable they can is smart. Will it work? Check back in three to four years to find out.